Data Used
Detailed information regarding the data used for calculating the recession risk level
Corporate Profits
Net income earned by corporations after all taxes have been paid, excluding adjustments for inventory valuation and depreciation.
Gross Domestic Product
Market value of the goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States.
Industrial Production
Real output of all relevant establishments located in the United States, regardless of their ownership, but not those located in U.S. territories.
Personal Consumption
Value of goods and services purchased by households and non-profit institutions serving households.
Retail Sales
Total receipts of retail stores from the sale of merchandise, typically excluding services.
Treasury Yield Rates
Return on investment for U.S. government debt securities, such as Treasury bonds, notes, and bills.
Unemployment Rate
Total number of unemployed people as a percentage of the civilian labor force. This rate is also defined as the U-3 measure of labor underutilization.
US Recessions
Periods of economic recession in the US, from the peak (the highest point of economic activity) to the trough (the lowest point of economic activity)
Volatility Index
United States market expectation of near term volatility conveyed by stock index option prices.